| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 1 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how many incumbent U.S. governors will lose their bids for reelection in 2026, providing a forward-looking measure of incumbency strength and statewide political shifts. It matters because gubernatorial outcomes affect state policy, partisan control, and signals about the national political environment.
The 2026 calendar includes gubernatorial contests across a mix of states and partisan environments; some incumbents will be running for another term while others are barred by term limits or choose to retire. Historically, governor races are influenced by local conditions and by whether the national environment favors the president’s party, and losses tend to cluster in years with strong national swings.
Market prices aggregate traders’ expectations based on polls, fundraising, events, and fundamentals; movement in those prices shows how participants update beliefs as new information arrives. Use price changes and volume as indicators of shifting perceived risk to incumbents rather than fixed forecasts.
This market is about incumbent governors who seek another term in 2026 and are defeated; whether primary defeats, resignations, or other scenarios count depends on the contract’s official resolution terms, so check the event’s rules for exact criteria.
The event page lists the close time as TBD; resolution timing will follow the market’s stated rules and typically occurs after official election results are certified for the 2026 contests—consult the contract for the precise deadline and resolution procedure.
No — governors who do not run for reelection (due to term limits, retirement, or running for another office) are not candidates to 'lose reelection'; only incumbents who actively seek another term are relevant under the usual interpretation.
Treatment of resignations, removals, and primary losses depends on the contract’s resolution language; many markets exclude incumbents who leave office before the election or count only those defeated in the general election, so review the event’s official definitions for how these scenarios are scored.
Watch incumbent approval and statewide polling, fundraising and advertising reports, headline events or scandals, primary results that weaken incumbents, and broader national indicators like midterm polling and turnout models—these elements tend to drive revaluation of expected incumbent losses.