| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 1 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how many incumbent Democratic U.S. Senators will lose their reelection bids in the 2026 election cycle. It matters because the number of incumbent losses affects which party controls the Senate and therefore legislative and confirmation outcomes.
The 2026 Senate cycle includes a mix of Democratic-held seats across competitive, solid, and leaning states; retirements, special elections, and shifting state-level dynamics can reshape which incumbents face tough races. Midterm and out-year cycles are often influenced by the sitting president's approval, the national economy, and localized political developments, making the landscape fluid through 2026.
Market prices aggregate traders' views and incoming information about the likely number of incumbent Democratic Senate losses; they update as new data (polls, retirements, fundraising, scandals, national trends) arrives. Treat market odds as a real-time summary of expectations, not a fixed prediction, and consult the event's official resolution text for precise definitions.
Typically this refers to an incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator who runs for reelection in 2026 and is defeated in the general election; it generally excludes retirements where the incumbent does not seek reelection and may exclude primary defeats, but check the market's official resolution language for exact rules.
Resolution timing depends on the 2026 general election results and any certification or contestation processes; the market will follow its platform's stated resolution criteria and timeline, so monitor the event page for the official close and resolution notice.
Yes—special elections and appointments can alter who is the incumbent at the time of the 2026 election, and resolution will reflect the incumbency status as defined by the market's rules; consult the event's resolution policy for how such edge cases are handled.
No—an open-seat flip resulting from a retirement is usually not counted as an incumbent losing reelection because the retired senator did not run; the market counts defeats of sitting incumbents per its resolution terms.
Key movers include announcements of retirements or challengers, state-level polling shifts, major fundraising reports, high-profile endorsements or scandals, and changes in the national political or economic environment that affect voters' preferences in states with Democratic incumbents.