| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 3 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 8 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 13 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 23 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how many billionaires New York City will lose this year and matters because changes in billionaire counts signal shifts in wealth distribution, migration, and local economic conditions.
New York City has long been a major center for ultra-high-net-worth individuals, but year-to-year counts fluctuate with asset valuations, relocations, deaths, and revisions to public wealth lists. Policy debates over taxation, housing costs, and business rules, along with global market volatility and mobility trends, influence whether wealthy residents stay, leave, or fall below billionaire status.
Prediction market odds aggregate traders' views based on available information and update as new events occur; they represent a realtime consensus signal rather than a definitive prediction.
Resolution follows the exchange's official contract specifications; typically it compares the count of individuals identified as New York City resident billionaires at the contract's defined start and resolution dates using the authoritative source(s) named in the market rules. Check the market page for the exact definition of residency and the data source(s).
The market close date is listed as TBD; the exchange will publish the closing and settlement timeline on the market page. Settlement happens after close once the exchange verifies counts per its published rules.
The exchange's contract terms specify the authoritative lists and public records it will use (for example, major billionaire lists or filings). Consult the market's rulebook or the contract page for the exact sources and any tie-breaking procedures.
Typical causes include individuals changing primary residence out of NYC, sharp asset-value declines that drop net worth below the billionaire threshold, deaths, legal or financial disqualifications, or corrections to published wealth lists.
Reported volume indicates how much trading activity and liquidity the market has attracted to date; four outcomes means the exchange has divided possible results into four mutually exclusive categories (see the market page for their exact labels and payout rules). Higher volume generally means easier entry and exit for traders but does not guarantee any particular outcome.