| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 440 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 445 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 450 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 455 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 460 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how high global atmospheric CO2 concentration will be at any point before the end of 2029. It matters because CO2 concentration integrates past emissions and is a primary control on long-term warming and climate impacts.
Atmospheric CO2 has climbed steadily since the industrial era as a result of fossil fuel use, land‑use change, and other human activities; year‑to‑year growth varies with emissions and natural uptake. Short‑term climate phenomena (e.g., El Niño), major policy shifts, economic cycles, and large land‑use or fire events can all change the near‑term trajectory.
Market prices/odds reflect traders' aggregate judgments about which concentration range is most likely to occur before 2030, not guarantees; use them alongside physical science, emissions data, and policy analysis to form views.
“Before 2030” means any time up to and including 31 December 2029 as defined by the exchange; check this market’s official rules for the precise cutoff and time zone used for settlement.
The exchange will specify an authoritative monitoring dataset or composite in the market rules (for example, a recognized global or station monthly mean); traders should consult the market’s settlement source to see which provider and calculation period will be used.
Each outcome corresponds to a mutually exclusive CO2 concentration range defined in the market listing; together they cover all possible values used for settlement—read the outcome boundaries on the event page to know which range matches a given observed concentration.
El Niño/La Niña and major fire years alter the year‑to‑year growth rate of atmospheric CO2 by changing natural uptake and emitting carbon, so they can shift whether a particular concentration threshold is reached in the short term; traders monitor climate forecasts and fire/emissions reports for these risks.
Consider both the near‑term timing of emissions reductions implied by announcements (laws, regulations, infrastructure buildout) and the credibility of implementation; immediate announcements can change expectations, but only sustained reductions materially reduce atmospheric concentration growth within a few years.