| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic party | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Republican party | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which political party will win the U.S. House seat in Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District (HI-02). The result matters for local representation and contributes to the national partisan balance in the House.
HI-02 covers the more rural parts of Oʻahu and the Neighbor Islands (including Maui and Kauaʻi counties), a diverse district with urban, suburban, rural, and Native Hawaiian communities. Historically the district has tended toward one major party in many cycles, but local issues, candidate quality, and turnout patterns can make individual races competitive.
Market prices reflect traders' aggregated expectations about which party will be the certified winner; they update as new information arrives but are not guarantees. Treat prices as a real-time summary of information and sentiment rather than a definitive forecast.
Settlement typically follows the official certification of the election outcome by the State of Hawaii and the exchange's resolution rules; exact timing depends on when results are certified and any legal challenges are resolved.
This market is structured with two party outcomes, representing which of the two major parties will be the certified winner; consult the market page for the exact outcome labels.
Resolution depends on the market's defined outcome categories and the exchange's rules; if the certified winner does not match a listed party outcome, the exchange's documented resolution procedure (e.g., 'Other' rules or cancellation) will apply — check the event rules on the platform for details.
Primary outcomes determine the general-election nominees, which can materially change the race's dynamics; new nominees often shift perceived competitiveness and thus market prices as traders incorporate nominee quality and electability.
Settlement relies on official results and certifications from Hawaii's state or county election authorities and any sources specified in the exchange's event rules; the platform will cite the authoritative publications used for resolution.