| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Case | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Della Au Belatti | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jarrett Keohokalole | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Maxwell Frazier | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which person will be the Democratic nominee in Hawaii's 1st Congressional District. The nominee determines who carries the Democratic banner in the general election for a seat that is politically important at the state and national level.
HI-01 covers urban parts of Oʻahu and has been a district where Democratic primaries frequently determine the eventual general election contest. When an incumbent retires or faces a strong primary challenge, the nomination contest can attract multiple well‑known local candidates, party activists, and outside attention.
Market prices aggregate trader expectations and react to new information such as filings, endorsements, and polling; they are a dynamic snapshot of perceived likelihoods rather than official forecasts or guarantees.
The market shows the four specific outcomes as listed on the exchange page — typically the names of declared candidates and any special outcomes the market creator included (for example an 'Other' option). Check the market interface for the exact labels.
The nominee is chosen according to Hawaii election law and Democratic Party rules, most commonly by the winner of the Democratic primary who is then certified by state election officials; party processes may differ in special circumstances.
Resolution timing depends on the market's specified conditions and the exchange's rules; generally the market resolves after the nominee is officially declared or certified by the appropriate state or party authority, so monitor both the exchange notice and the state election calendar.
Major endorsements, fundraising/finance reports, credible polling, debate performances, candidate withdrawals or new filings, and legal or ballot‑access rulings are the kinds of events that typically shift trader expectations.
A withdrawal can materially change trader sentiment and prices but how the market treats that withdrawn candidate (e.g., whether the outcome is replaced, relabeled, or remains on the board) is governed by the exchange's rules and any official market notices — check the market terms for specifics.