| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic party | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Republican party | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will be declared the winner of the Hawaii gubernatorial race; it matters because markets consolidate diverse information about the race into a single, continuously updated signal.
Hawaii typically leans Democratic in statewide races but gubernatorial outcomes have been influenced by local dynamics, incumbency, and candidate quality. Primary fights, candidate name recognition, and issues like tourism, housing costs, and Native Hawaiian policy often shape the contest in ways that differ from national trends.
Market prices represent the aggregation of traders' expectations and react to new information such as polls, fundraising, endorsements, and late ballot counts; they should be read as a snapshot of perceived likelihoods rather than a definitive prediction.
The market lists two mutually exclusive outcomes corresponding to the named candidates on the contract; at settlement the outcome matching the officially certified statewide winner is the one that resolves as correct under Kalshi's rules.
Market close is listed as TBD; the event will be resolved based on the official state certification of the gubernatorial election according to Kalshi's settlement procedures, so final determination can occur after election night when results are certified.
Hawaii selects its governor by plurality in the general election—there is no statewide runoff—so the candidate with the most certified votes statewide becomes governor.
Watch developments in tourism (visitor numbers, closures), shifts in housing and cost-of-living data, major endorsements or withdrawals, late-breaking scandals or policy revelations, and localized natural disasters that affect turnout or public sentiment.
Late-counted absentee and provisional ballots, recounts, certification timelines, and any legal challenges can alter the certified outcome and therefore affect the market until Kalshi resolves the event based on official results.