| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Harris wins | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Clayton Fuller, 0-5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Clayton Fuller, 5-10% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Clayton Fuller, 10-15% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Clayton Fuller, 15-20% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Clayton Fuller, 20-25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Clayton Fuller, 25-30% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Clayton Fuller, 30-35% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Clayton Fuller, 35%+ | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market focuses on the margin of victory in the GA-14 special election runoff, capturing market participants' expectations about how close the final, certified result will be. It matters because the size of the margin can affect recount likelihoods, perceived mandate, and local political dynamics.
The runoff follows an initial special election in Georgia's 14th district where no single candidate secured the outcome required to avoid a head-to-head runoff, so the top two finishers met in a follow-up election pursuant to state rules. Special election runoffs often differ from the first round in turnout, voter composition, and campaign intensity, and local issues and timing can disproportionately influence the result. County reporting schedules, absentee/provisional ballot processing, and any post-election challenges all shape the timeline for final certification.
Market prices reflect the aggregate, real-time view of participants about likely margins rather than guarantees; they update as new information arrives. Use them as a snapshot of collective expectations and as a lens on evolving news, turnout signals, and administrative developments.
The market will settle according to Kalshi's published settlement rules once the final certified vote totals for the GA-14 runoff are established by the appropriate Georgia state and county authorities; settlement follows the official certification process, which includes count completion, provisional-ballot adjudication, and any administrative adjustments.
The margin of victory is defined as the difference between the two runoff candidates' final certified vote totals as reported by election officials; the market uses those certified totals (or the market's specified settlement source) to determine the outcome.
Ballots that are lawfully counted during the official canvass — including absentee ballots received and validated by the statutory deadline and provisional ballots that are later adjudicated as valid — are included in the certified totals and can alter the margin after initial night returns.
Recounts, audits, or court-ordered adjustments triggered by close results or credible challenges can lead to changes in certified totals; if official certification is modified, the revised certified totals are what govern settlement under the market's rules.
Yes; historically, Georgia runoffs can exhibit lower turnout and different voter mixes than the initial contest, and shifts in campaign intensity or endorsements between rounds often change dynamics—these patterns can help contextualize how margins might move even absent new polling.