| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 5-10% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 10-15% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 15-20% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 20-25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 25-30% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 30-35% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 35% and above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market tracks the margin of victory in the first round of the GA-14 special election, offering a way to gauge market expectations about how close the leading candidate will be. It matters because first-round margins determine whether a runoff is likely and signal voter enthusiasm and campaign effectiveness.
Special elections for a legislative seat in GA-14 occur outside the regular cycle and often have lower turnout, making outcomes sensitive to mobilisation and local networks. Historical context includes the district's recent voting patterns, any incumbent departure that triggered the special election, and unique local issues or endorsements that can shift usual dynamics.
Market prices reflect the consensus view of traders based on available information and update as new data arrive; they are best read as an evolving indicator of market sentiment rather than a definitive prediction. For settlement and exact outcome, rely on official results from Georgia election authorities—markets mirror, but do not replace, those official counts.
It refers to the vote difference between the top two vote-getters in the initial special election contest (before any runoff). The market resolves to the official reported margin for that first-round count as certified by election authorities.
The market will settle based on the official first-round results as reported and certified by the Georgia election authorities or the local county canvass. Settlement timing depends on when those official results are posted and any subsequent certification processes.
Candidate names and ballot access are published by the Georgia Secretary of State and local election offices; check their official websites or the certified candidate list for the GA-14 special election for the most current and authoritative roster.
Each market outcome maps to a specific margin range or discrete margin value as defined in the market rules. After official tabulation, the outcome whose defined margin range contains the certified first-round margin is the winning contract; consult the market's rules page for exact range definitions and tie-handling procedures.
Look at past election margins and turnout in the district, recent demographic or partisan shifts, whether the race was triggered by an incumbent resignation or vacancy, presence of strong local issues or controversies, and the scale of campaign spending and ground operations.