| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josie Tomkow | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Brian Nathan | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will win the Florida State Senate District 14 special election. The outcome matters because it determines who represents SD-14 and can affect vote margins on state policy and leadership dynamics in the Florida Senate.
The special election is being held to fill a vacancy in Florida’s 14th State Senate district; special elections are scheduled under state law and typically occur off the regular electoral cycle. SD-14’s recent electoral history, demographic composition, and any local political shifts shape competitiveness. Special-election dynamics—lower baseline turnout and concentrated campaigning—often magnify the effects of organization and mobilization.
Market prices reflect the collective, real-time assessment of traders and move as new information (polls, fundraising, turnout, ballot counts) becomes available. Use market movement as a live indicator of sentiment and information flow rather than a final legal determination.
The winner is the candidate officially declared the victor in the Florida SD-14 special election according to the relevant official canvass and certification process; the market will resolve based on the exchange’s published resolution rules tied to official results.
This specific market’s close is listed as TBD; platform close times can vary relative to the election and official certification. Check the market page for the exact close time and the platform’s event resolution policy to understand how closing interacts with vote reporting and certification.
In cases of recounts, contests, or delayed certification the market will follow the exchange’s resolution rules, which generally rely on the official certified result once the state or county canvass completes and any legally binding challenges are resolved.
Monitor early/absentee vote volumes and breakdowns released by county election offices, late-campaign advertising and endorsement announcements, reported fundraising and field activity, local polling or credible surveys, and any last-minute news or events that could affect turnout.
Authoritative sources include the Florida Division of Elections and the county Supervisor(s) of Elections covering SD-14 for candidate lists, official vote tallies, and certified canvass reports; the market page on the exchange will also post status and resolution updates.