| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madison Cawthorn | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Bob Rommel | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Spencer Roach | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jim Oberweis | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Catalina Lauf | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Chris Collins | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ola Hawatmeh | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jim Schwartzel | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will become the Republican nominee for Florida's 19th Congressional District (FL-19). The outcome matters because the nominee shapes the district's general election dynamics and the Republican Party's chances in that seat.
FL-19's nomination process is decided in the Republican primary (or a party convention if applicable), with outcomes influenced by local demographics, recent redistricting, and the presence or absence of an incumbent. Historically, primary contests in the district have been driven by name recognition, fundraising, and endorsements from state and local party figures.
Market odds reflect the consensus view of traders based on public information and update as new data arrives. Treat the odds as a continuously updating signal that integrates fundraising reports, endorsements, polling, and candidate-specific events rather than a fixed forecast.
The market will be settled based on the official result that determines the Republican nominee for Florida's 19th District as recognized by the state or local election authorities and the market operator's settlement rules.
The market's close is listed as TBD; settlement typically follows the official party primary (or convention) that produces the Republican nominee and any subsequent official certification dates specified by the market operator.
The five outcomes correspond to the specific candidate options listed on the market (typically the leading declared Republican contenders and/or an 'Other' option); consult the market page for the exact names or labels used.
Settlement follows the market's published rules: if a candidate withdraws or is disqualified before the official nomination is determined, the final certified nominee is used for settlement. The market operator may have procedures for handling ambiguous cases, so check the event's rulebook.
Key moving events include major endorsements, first-party polling or internal polling releases, fundraising reports and FEC filings, candidate debate/performance events, legal developments affecting ballot access, and formal withdrawals or last-minute entries.