| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denmark Democrats | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Venstre | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Moderates | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Liberal Alliance | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Social Democrats | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Green Left | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market focuses on which Danish parties will increase their number of seats in the next general election; that matters because seat gains change coalition math and determine who can form government.
Denmark elects a multi-party parliament (the Folketing) where coalition building is routine and small seat swings can alter which bloc holds a majority. Results reflect nationwide proportional representation and include seats from Greenland and the Faroe Islands. Recent cycles have featured fragmentation and shifts between blocs, so marginal gains by one party can have outsized political consequences.
Market prices summarize collective expectations about which parties will end up with more seats than before and update as polls, vote counts, and news arrive. They are indicators of market sentiment rather than fixed forecasts of exact seat totals.
Resolution typically follows the official, certified seat totals published by Danish authorities and any market-specific settlement rules; that can occur after initial counts and any recounts or formal adjustments. Check the market page for the exact settlement conditions and timing since this event lists 'Closes: TBD.'
A party 'gains seats' if its final, officially certified number of seats in the newly constituted Folketing exceeds its seat total from the previous parliament; settlement relies on official counts rather than media projections.
Yes; seats allocated to Greenland and the Faroe Islands are part of the Folketing and are included in official seat totals used for market resolution, so their results can affect whether a party is recorded as gaining seats.
Polls are a leading indicator but are only one input—markets synthesize polls with real-time reporting, regional returns, and newsflow. On and after election day, official vote counts and certified results become primary for determining outcomes.
No; seat gains are determined solely by the numeric change in a party's seats as recorded in the official results, not by subsequent coalition agreements or ministerial appointments, although those deals matter for governance and future political dynamics.