| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| New Hampshire | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Georgia | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Michigan | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| North Carolina | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Maine | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Iowa | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Texas | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ohio | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Alaska | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Nebraska | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which U.S. Senate contest in the 2026 cycle will finish with the smallest margin of victory. It matters because the closest race can determine recounts, legal challenges, and media attention, and it often signals where political control or voter trends are most contested.
The 2026 Senate map includes regular and any special elections scheduled that year, with several open seats and vulnerable incumbents creating multiple competitive contests. Historically, the tightest Senate races occur in states with recent partisan swings, retiring incumbents, or large numbers of late-counted absentee and provisional ballots.
Market odds aggregate trader expectations about which contest will be the narrowest and will move as new information (polls, retirements, ballot rules, local news) becomes available. Prices are not forecasts to be taken as exact probabilities but as a changing consensus signal about relative likelihoods across listed outcomes.
The market designates the closest race as the Senate contest with the smallest certified margin between the top two finishers in the 2026 cycle, as determined by the contract's settlement rules. For precise settlement mechanics and tie-break procedures, consult the event's official terms on the Kalshi platform.
Settlement follows the timing specified in the event contract, which typically waits for official certification of results; recounts and legal challenges that alter certified results can delay settlement until final outcomes are certified.
In most cases the event will include any Senate contests held as part of the 2026 cycle, including scheduled special elections and runoffs if they fall under the contract's scope. Check the market's outcome list and contract language to confirm which contests are eligible.
Monitor state-level polls, county-level returns in prior cycles, late-ballot rules, real-time vote-counting patterns on election night, campaign spending reports, and local news about turnout or legal disputes; those signals often presage which contests will end up being razor-thin.
Historically, the tightest Senate races cluster in competitive, demographically shifting states and in contests with late-counted absentee ballots or outgoing incumbents. Markets have shown late movement around ballot-count rules, recount thresholds, and court rulings, so traders should watch procedural dates and local counting practices as much as polling.