| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maine | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Minnesota | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| New Mexico | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| New York | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Pennsylvania | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Arizona | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Michigan | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Wisconsin | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Kansas | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Georgia | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Nevada | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Iowa | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| New Hampshire | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ohio | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which state's 2026 gubernatorial contest will finish with the smallest certified margin of victory. It matters because very close governor races can trigger recounts, legal disputes, and have outsized implications for state policy and party control.
Many states hold gubernatorial elections on different cycles, and the 2026 cycle will produce a mix of open seats and incumbent defenses; the specific mix of states on the ballot drives where the tightest contests are likely to appear. Historically, a handful of governor races each cycle have been decided by very narrow margins, with outcomes sometimes changing after recounts or court rulings. National trends, state-level politics, candidate quality, turnout, and local issues all interact to produce close contests.
Market prices reflect the collective information and beliefs of traders about which state will produce the smallest margin; they update in real time as new polls, fundraising, and news arrive. Use prices as a dynamic signal of market sentiment, but remember they are not guarantees and can change as events unfold.
It refers to the single gubernatorial contest held in 2026 that ends up with the smallest certified statewide margin of victory after all counts, recounts, and legal resolutions are complete.
Each listed outcome corresponds to a specific state's 2026 gubernatorial race (the set of states was fixed when the market launched); the chosen outcome wins if that state's race is the closest by the market's resolution rules. Consult the market page for the exact list of states included.
The market close is listed as TBD; resolution will follow the platform's published rules and generally occurs after the official certification of election results, which can be delayed by recounts or pending legal challenges.
The platform typically uses the final certified result for each governor race, so runoffs, recounts, and court decisions that alter certified margins will affect outcomes; unresolved disputes can delay market resolution until certification is complete.
$20,181 of trading volume indicates the current level of liquidity and engagement; higher volume generally means more information has been incorporated into prices, while low volume can make prices more sensitive to individual trades and news events.