| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Swalwell | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Matt Mahan | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Chad Bianco | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Steve Hilton | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tom Steyer | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Katie Porter | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Xavier Becerra | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Antonio Villaraigosa | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will finish first in the California gubernatorial primary; it matters because primary outcomes shape who advances to the general election and signal voter preferences across the state.
California uses a statewide primary where all qualified candidates compete on the same ballot and the top vote-getter is identified from that field; recent cycles have featured high turnout variability due to mail voting, regional turnout differences, and shifting party dynamics. The primary result can influence fundraising, endorsements, and momentum heading into the general election.
Prediction market prices aggregate participants' information and expectations about who will finish first; they update as new data (polls, endorsements, fundraising, news) becomes available, but they are not guarantees of the final result.
The market's close is listed as TBD on the event page; settlement will be based on the official primary result as defined in the market rules, typically using the state's certified vote totals for first place.
This market lists eight distinct outcomes corresponding to specific candidates; see the event page for the current roster and any updates to outcome names.
The market resolves to the candidate identified as the first-place finisher in the official certified primary results; tie-resolution procedures, if any, are specified in the market's rules—review those rules on the event page for details.
Yes—official certified results include absentee, provisional, and any late-counted ballots; because certification can take days or weeks, the market may await those official totals before final settlement.
Large moves reflect participants quickly updating beliefs in response to new information; such moves signal changing perceptions of candidates' chances but can reverse as more information (polling, returns) becomes available.