| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eleni Kounalakis | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Xavier Becerra | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tom Steyer | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Betty Yee | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tony Thurmond | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Rick Caruso | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Antonio Villaraigosa | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Katie Porter | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Chad Bianco | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Steve Hilton | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Kamala Harris | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ethan Agarwal | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Eric Swalwell | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Rob Bonta | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Matt Mahan | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which individual will be listed as an advancer from the California gubernatorial primary (a person outcome) and matters because the primary determines which candidates continue to the general election under California’s top-two system.
California uses a nonpartisan, top-two primary for governor: all candidates appear on one ballot and the two highest vote-getters advance to the general election regardless of party. A crowded field, regional turnout patterns, and late campaign events have historically produced surprises in California primaries.
Market prices reflect traders’ aggregated beliefs about who official returns will show as advancing; interpret prices as signals about relative market sentiment and responsiveness to new information, not as fixed forecasts.
Settlement will follow the official primary results as recognized by the state authority responsible for certifying California’s gubernatorial primary. The event resolves based on the certified vote totals that identify the top two vote-getters (or the specified advancer in a single-person outcome), per the market’s rulebook.
The market will typically wait for official county canvass and statewide certification processes to conclude; that can take days to weeks after election day. Exact settlement timing depends on the market platform’s adjudication rules and the date certification is finalized.
Settlement follows official ballot status and certified results: if a candidate is formally removed before votes are cast, they would not be counted as an advancer; if they withdraw but remain on the ballot, any votes cast for them count toward advancer determination according to official returns.
Because the top-two rule advances the two highest vote-getters regardless of party, vote-splitting and cross-party dynamics matter more. Two candidates from the same party can both advance, and coalition-building or turnout among specific constituencies can be decisive.
Important movers include updated county-level vote reporting on election night, certified tabulation updates, late polls focused on the primary electorate, major endorsements or funding announcements, candidate withdrawals or disqualifications, and legal developments affecting ballot access or vote counts.