| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lou Correa | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Francisco Bahena | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Christian Mendez | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| David Pan | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Armando Perez-Serrato | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks which candidates will emerge from the California 46th Congressional District primary election to advance to the general election. It serves as a barometer for candidate viability in a critical battleground district.
California utilizes a 'top-two' primary system where all candidates, regardless of party affiliation, appear on the same ballot. The two candidates receiving the most votes advance to the general election, meaning voters may see two Democrats, two Republicans, or one of each in the final round. Understanding the district's partisan lean and incumbent strength is essential for assessing candidate performance.
Market prices reflect the collective anticipation of which candidates are most likely to secure the two spots needed to advance based on local polling and electoral strategy.
Unlike traditional primaries, all candidates compete together, meaning the top two vote-getters advance regardless of party, which can lead to intra-party general election contests.
The market will reflect the remaining pool of candidates as defined by official election filings.
No, this market only tracks who advances to the final ballot; the general election will determine the ultimate winner.
The district has historically been a competitive area in Orange County, making the primary a key indicator of party strength heading into the November cycle.
The official result is confirmed once the California Secretary of State certifies the primary election canvass.