| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Tran | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Mark Leonard | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Chi Charlie Nguyen | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Chuong Vo | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tom Vo | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Amy Phan West | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks which candidates will emerge from the California 45th Congressional District primary election to appear on the general election ballot. It is a critical indicator of voter sentiment in one of the most closely watched battleground districts in the United States.
California utilizes a 'top-two' primary system where all candidates, regardless of party affiliation, appear on the same primary ballot. The two candidates who receive the highest number of votes advance to the general election, regardless of their party. This district often experiences intense spending and high-profile campaigning due to its competitive nature and significance to the balance of power in the House.
The market prices reflect the aggregate expectations of participants regarding candidate viability, fundraising strength, and local electoral trends. Users should interpret these prices as a signal of market consensus on which candidates are positioned to secure a spot in the top two.
Because party affiliation does not guarantee a spot in the general election, voters may coalesce around specific candidates regardless of the party label, making the final tally highly sensitive to individual candidate performance.
The market typically tracks the officially certified candidates who appear on the ballot; candidates who withdraw early are removed from consideration for the final primary results.
No, this market specifically focuses on the primary election results, determining only which two candidates will proceed to the November ballot.
The official outcome is determined by the final certified vote counts provided by the California Secretary of State and local county registrar offices.
Super PACs and outside groups often flood the district with advertising; high levels of outside spending can significantly alter name recognition and candidate support in the weeks leading up to the primary.