| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Calvert | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Young Kim | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Joe Kerr | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Nina Linh | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Lisa Ramirez | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Esther Kim Varet | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which candidates will advance from the California 40th Congressional District primary to the general election. It matters because the primary determines the two advancers who will compete in the general election and signals local electoral dynamics.
California uses a top-two primary system: the two highest vote-getters advance to the general election regardless of party affiliation. The CA-40 contest is shaped by the district's demographic mix, any incumbent status or open-seat dynamics, and recent redistricting or local issue salience. This market lists six candidate outcomes so traders can express views on which two will finish atop the primary.
Market prices aggregate the beliefs of traders and update as new information arrives; they are one input among polls, fundraising, and returns. Use prices alongside official vote counts and local reporting to form a view of likely advancers.
Under California's top-two primary system, the two candidates with the highest vote totals advance to the general election; confirm special resolution notes on the market page for edge cases.
The event's close is listed as TBD; resolution timing will follow the market's specified rules, typically after official results are certified by the California Secretary of State—check the market page for updates on close and resolution procedures.
The market creator selected six candidate outcomes (usually the principal candidates most likely to be competitive or those on the ballot); review the market's outcome list to see the specific candidate names represented.
Watch county-level vote returns and how mail/early ballots are trending, official precinct reporting, local polling and internal campaign data, fundraising and endorsement announcements, and local news about turnout or issues that might shift votes.
Market resolution follows the platform's stated rules—typically the official certified result determines winners; consult the specific market resolution policy for how ties, provisional ballots, and recounts are treated.