| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Sherman | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Chris Ahuja | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Dory Benami | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jake Levine | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Marena Lin | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Josh Sautter | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Doug Smith | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Larry Thompson | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Anna Wilding | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks which candidate will secure a spot in the general election for California's 32nd Congressional District following the primary. It is a critical indicator of voter sentiment and party strength in one of California’s most prominent districts.
California employs a 'top-two' primary system where all candidates, regardless of party affiliation, appear on the same ballot. The two candidates who receive the most votes advance to the general election, regardless of their party. This structure often leads to intra-party matchups or diverse competition that deviates from traditional partisan primaries.
Market prices reflect the collective assessment of political analysts and traders regarding a candidate's viability based on fundraising, endorsements, and local polling trends.
Even if a candidate receives over 50% of the vote, they must still participate in the general election under California's top-two system unless they are the only two candidates on the ballot.
Yes, the market covers all eligible candidates listed on the official primary ballot, regardless of their political party.
The primary serves as a qualifying round; the top two finishers advance to the general election, meaning it is possible for two members of the same party to face off in November.
The official candidate list is maintained and updated by the California Secretary of State’s office.
A candidate is considered to have advanced if they are one of the top two vote-getters who qualify for the general election ballot according to the certified election results.