| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gil Cisneros | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Eric Ching | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Erskine Levi | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks which candidates will emerge from the California 31st Congressional District's top-two primary election. Determining the two finalists is a critical step in deciding the partisan composition of the U.S. House of Representatives.
California utilizes a nonpartisan 'jungle primary' system where all candidates, regardless of party affiliation, appear on the same ballot. The two candidates with the highest number of votes advance to the general election, meaning voters may see two members of the same party competing in November. This district has undergone redistricting shifts, making candidate name recognition and grassroots organization vital for securing a spot in the final round.
Market prices represent the aggregate sentiment of participants regarding the likelihood of each candidate successfully securing a top-two position.
All candidates compete on a single ballot, and the two candidates receiving the most votes advance to the general election, regardless of their political party.
Yes; if the top two vote-getters happen to be from the same party, they will proceed to face each other in the general election.
In the California top-two system, even if a candidate receives more than 50% of the vote in the primary, the top two finishers must still proceed to the general election.
Redistricting alters district boundaries, shifting the electorate's composition and potentially changing the ideological balance, which influences which candidates are best positioned to capture the necessary votes.
Official results are typically certified by the California Secretary of State several weeks after election day, following the processing of all mail-in and provisional ballots.