| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Judy Chu | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Peter Roybal | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| April Verlato | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the results of the California's 28th Congressional District primary, determining which candidates will advance to the general election. It serves as a gauge for voter sentiment and party strength in this specific district.
California utilizes a 'top-two' primary system where all candidates appear on a single ballot regardless of party affiliation. The two candidates with the highest number of votes move on to the general election. CA-28 historically leans toward the Democratic Party, making the primary a critical contest for determining the final general election matchup.
The market prices reflect the collective anticipation of how primary voters will distribute their support among the pool of declared candidates.
Because the top two finishers advance regardless of party, it is possible for two members of the same party to face each other in the general election.
If a candidate officially withdraws, their name may still appear on the ballot depending on filing deadlines, but their impact on the market will be reflected in their perceived ability to garner votes.
No, the market includes all candidates appearing on the ballot, as California's primary is non-partisan and inclusive of all qualified entrants.
Official results are confirmed once the California Secretary of State certifies the vote count, typically several weeks after election day.
No, this market only covers who advances to the general election; the final winner is decided in the subsequent general election.