| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Espinosa | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sam Gallucci | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Liam Hernandez | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jacqui Irwin | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sonia Kacker | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Michael Koslow | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Daniel Miller | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sasan Samadzadeh | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| William Scott | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks which candidates will successfully advance from the California 26th Congressional District primary election to the general election. It serves as a gauge for political viability and voter sentiment in a key competitive district.
California utilizes a 'top-two' primary system, where all candidates regardless of party affiliation appear on a single ballot. The two candidates who receive the most votes, regardless of party, proceed to the November general election. This structure often leads to intra-party contests or multi-party battles that prioritize broader voter appeal over base-party turnout.
Market prices represent the aggregate expectations of participants regarding the likelihood of each candidate securing one of the two slots available in the general election.
Only the two candidates who secure the highest number of votes in the primary will advance to the general election.
Because party affiliation does not guarantee a spot in the general election, candidates must compete for the same pool of voters across the entire political spectrum.
Key indicators include campaign finance reports, polling data, and the ability to mobilize support within a diverse electorate.
This market focuses on the primary candidates formally recognized by the California Secretary of State for the 26th District ballot.
The market will resolve based on the official, certified results of the primary election issued by the relevant election authorities.