| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Panetta | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ana Acevedo-Cabrera | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Thomas Coxe | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sean Dougherty | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tuka Gafari | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Lars Mapstead | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Peter Verbica | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks which candidates will secure a spot in the general election for California's 19th Congressional District. It matters because it determines the final matchup for this highly competitive seat in the U.S. House of Representatives.
California utilizes a 'top-two' primary system, where all candidates from all parties appear on the same ballot, and the two candidates with the most votes advance to the general election. CA-19 is located in the Central Coast region, covering parts of Santa Cruz, Monterey, San Benito, and Santa Clara counties. The district has a recent history of shifting political demographics, making candidate selection during the primary a critical indicator of regional voter sentiment.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of participants regarding the likelihood of each candidate successfully advancing to the general election ballot.
It means the two candidates with the most votes advance, regardless of party affiliation; therefore, this market must account for scenarios where two candidates from the same party or different parties advance.
If a candidate withdraws, their chances of advancing typically drop to zero, and the market prices will reflect the increased likelihood of the remaining candidates filling the top-two spots.
No, this market specifically tracks the primary stage; a separate election will take place to determine the ultimate winner of the seat.
The district spans urban, coastal, and agricultural regions, meaning candidates who can appeal to the diverse economic and social interests of these specific areas have a distinct advantage.
The market settles after the official primary election results are certified by the California Secretary of State, confirming which two candidates have moved on to the general election.