| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Aguilar | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Suzanne Chenault | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Carin Elam | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Melissa Hernandez | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Wendy Huang | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Dena Maldonado | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Matt Ortega | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Rakhi Israni Singh | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Aisha Wahab | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the results of the California 14th Congressional District primary, determining which candidates will advance to the general election. It serves as a gauge for voter sentiment and political viability in a key California district.
California utilizes a nonpartisan 'top-two' primary system where all candidates appear on a single ballot regardless of party affiliation. The two candidates receiving the most votes in this primary advance to the November general election. This race often hinges on incumbent strength and the demographic composition of the district, which encompasses parts of San Mateo and Santa Clara counties.
The market prices reflect collective expectations regarding candidate performance and voter turnout patterns within the district. Participants adjust their positions as campaigns disclose funding, polling data, and endorsements.
Under this system, candidates from all parties compete on one ballot; the two individuals with the highest vote totals advance, even if they share the same political party.
Even with an absolute majority, California's top-two system requires that the top two candidates proceed to the general election, regardless of the margin of victory.
The 14th district is located in the San Francisco Bay Area, primarily covering sections of San Mateo County and northern Santa Clara County, including several prominent Silicon Valley communities.
The market settles once the official election results are certified by the California Secretary of State, confirming which candidates have secured the two spots on the general election ballot.
The district has historically leaned toward the Democratic Party, which heavily influences the strategies of both major party candidates and independent challengers.