| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Wiener | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Saikat Chakrabarti | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Marie Hurabiell | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Connie Chan | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Matt Haney | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official winner of the U.S. House of Representatives election for California's 11th Congressional District. It serves as a sentiment gauge for political forecasting within one of California's key legislative races.
California's 11th District has historically been a stronghold in the San Francisco Bay Area, shaped by regional economic trends and shifting constituent priorities. The outcome is determined by the general election results, which reflect broader electoral shifts in California's congressional representation. Voters in this district are often influenced by local housing policy, environmental regulations, and state-wide fiscal issues.
The market prices reflect the collective anticipation of voters, pundits, and political analysts regarding which candidate will secure the seat. A higher price indicates a broader market consensus that a specific candidate is the likely victor based on current campaign data and polling.
The district primarily encompasses portions of Contra Costa County in the San Francisco Bay Area.
All candidates appear on a single ballot in the primary regardless of party, with the top two vote-getters advancing to the general election, which can result in two members of the same party facing off.
This market resolves once the California Secretary of State or a comparable official body certifies the election results for the 11th District.
No, this market tracks the winner of the final general election, not the primary, though primary performance is often used as a key indicator of general election strength.
If a candidate officially withdraws or is removed from the ballot, their specific outcome in this market typically becomes ineligible to win, and traders may adjust their positions accordingly.