| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kiley | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Lauren Babb Tomlinson | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Martha Guerrero | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Thien Ho | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Richard Pan | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Michael Stansfield | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tyler Vandenberg | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks which candidates will advance from the California 6th Congressional District primary election to the general election. Given California's top-two primary system, this market identifies the primary finishers who will secure a spot on the final ballot.
California employs a 'jungle primary' system where all candidates, regardless of party, appear on the same ballot. The two candidates receiving the most votes advance to the general election, regardless of their party affiliation. The 6th District is known for its shifting demographic landscape and the influence of independent voters in suburban areas.
Market prices reflect the collective anticipation of which candidates have the strongest grassroots support, funding, and name recognition to survive the primary cut.
Because the top two finishers move forward regardless of party, voters may face a general election ballot featuring two candidates from the same political party.
If a candidate withdraws, they are typically removed from future market consideration as their path to advancing is effectively closed.
The 6th District currently encompasses parts of the Sacramento region, and its specific composition is determined by the decennial redistricting process.
While write-in candidates are permitted, they historically face extreme difficulty in securing enough votes to place in the top two against established, ballot-listed candidates.
Market resolution occurs once the Secretary of State certifies the primary election results, confirming which two candidates officially moved forward.