| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Thompson | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Eric Jones | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sharon Brown | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Heath Fulkerson | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Mandy Ghusar | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Laurie MacKenzie | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate(s) will be among the top advancers from California's 4th Congressional District primary. It matters because the primary determines which candidates move on to the general election and shapes strategic decisions for parties and donors.
California uses a top-two primary in federal House races: the two highest vote-getters, regardless of party, advance to the November general election. CA-04's partisan balance and precinct composition have shifted in recent cycles and after redistricting, so candidate name recognition, local issues, and turnout patterns can be decisive.
Prediction market odds reflect the crowd's aggregated expectation about which candidates will finish as the top two; they change as new information arrives (polls, fundraising, endorsements, returns on election night). Odds are a real-time signal, not a guarantee, and markets update faster than official results during close races.
Under California's top-two system, the two candidates with the most votes in the primary advance to the general election; this market tracks which specific candidate(s) will be among those advancers.
Resolution follows the platform's rules and the official determination of who the top two advancers are; initial election-night returns can show likely outcomes, but official certification and counting of late or provisional ballots can change results in close races.
Each outcome corresponds to a particular candidate (or candidate pairing, if the market is structured that way) finishing as one of the top-two primary advancers; check the event's outcome labels on the market page for exact definitions.
Monitor campaign fundraising reports, local endorsement announcements, turnout and early ballot return statistics in CA-04 precincts, local polling if available, and news about candidate events, debates, or controversies.
In a close race, late-arriving mail ballots, provisional ballots, and post-election tabulation can change margins and potentially alter which two candidates advance; markets may react to updates as those ballots are reported and certified.