| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jair Bolsonaro | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Fernando Haddad | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tarcísio de Freitas | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Michelle Bolsonaro | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Eduardo Bolsonaro | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ratinho Júnior | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Renan Santos | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Romeu Zema | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ronaldo Caiado | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Aldo Rebelo | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will be the certified winner of Brazil's presidential election; it aggregates traders' expectations and can signal how observers judge the evolving race. The outcome matters for Brazil's domestic policy direction and regional economic and diplomatic dynamics.
Brazil elects its president under a two-round system: if no candidate receives an absolute majority in the first round, the top two advance to a runoff. Recent cycles have featured strong polarization, shifting party coalitions, and volatile public sentiment tied to economic and security conditions, all of which shape campaign strategies and voter turnout. Candidates' ability to form alliances and appeal across diverse regions is historically decisive.
Market odds are a real-time expression of collective expectations, updating as new information—polls, legal rulings, economic data, endorsements—arrives; they are indicators, not certainties, and can shift rapidly in response to major events.
It means the market has not set a fixed trading-closure time; trading will continue until the platform announces a closing or until the market follows its predetermined settlement rule tied to official election certification.
If no candidate wins an outright majority in the first round, the market outcome ultimately depends on the official, certified final winner after a possible runoff; some markets list multiple candidate outcomes to reflect both first-round and final possibilities.
Major drivers include new national poll releases, high-profile debates, coalition announcements, court rulings about candidacies, sudden economic shocks, and major endorsements or scandals.
Settlement follows the market's published rules, which generally rely on official results and certifications from Brazil's electoral authority; if a candidate is disqualified before votes are certified, the platform's rules determine how related outcome contracts are resolved.
No; each outcome corresponds to a specific candidate or defined result, and only the outcome that matches the officially certified president at settlement is paid as the winner.