| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to Beat: $3,662 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether the Bezel Tudor Index will finish the March period higher or lower than its reference level; it matters because it aggregates short‑term expectations about that index’s direction and can signal market sentiment for the month.
The Bezel Tudor Index is a published market index (see the contract page for the index provider and methodology). Monthly up/down markets focus on the index’s change across the defined March interval; historical seasonality, earnings calendars for major components, and macro events often drive month‑to‑month moves.
Prediction market prices are a live aggregation of traders’ views and update as new information arrives; treat them as a market signal that should be combined with fundamentals, news flow, and your own risk management rather than a definitive forecast.
Resolution is based on the contract’s published settlement rule: compare the Bezel Tudor Index value at the contract’s defined resolution time to the reference level specified in the market document. Consult the KALSHI market page for the exact reference point and settlement timings.
The close/resolution time is listed on the event’s contract page and is currently marked TBD; check that page periodically because the platform will publish the official closing and settlement timestamps when they are set.
The contract names the authoritative index provider or data feed used for settlement; the KALSHI event page and market rules state which publisher’s value is used for the final determination.
New information (economic releases, earnings, policy statements, or geopolitical developments) will be incorporated by traders, causing prices to reprice expected month‑end direction and often increasing intramonth volatility; large or unexpected items typically produce the biggest moves.
It can serve as a short‑term directional hedge, but consider liquidity, contract resolution specifics, and whether the market’s timeframe matches your exposure; low traded volume or wide spreads mean hedges may be costly or imperfect—confirm current liquidity on the market page before using it for risk management.