| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to Beat: $5,729 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether the Bezel Cartier Index will finish 'Up' or 'Down' for the month of March; it matters because it aggregates trader expectations about the index's short‑term direction and can signal near‑term sentiment about the components the index tracks.
The Bezel Cartier Index tracks a defined basket of science and technology–related assets or metrics (see the contract for the precise composition and data source). Monthly directional markets like this isolate short‑term moves and are influenced by scheduled company and sector events, macro developments, and any index methodology updates. Because the market closes on a rolling schedule set by the exchange, traders use it to express views specifically about March rather than longer horizons.
Prediction market prices on this contract reflect the collective expectations of participating traders at any moment; they move as new information arrives and should be read as a real‑time indicator of market consensus rather than a fixed forecast.
The event settles according to the Bezel Cartier Index value and the settlement rules specified in the contract text; typically that means comparing the index value at the official settlement time to the reference value defined by the exchange. Consult the contract's settlement clause on KALSHI for the exact definition used for this market.
The market close and settlement time are set by the exchange and currently listed as TBD; KALSHI will announce the precise close/settlement times on the event page and in market notices—monitor the event page for updates.
The contract specifies the official data provider or published feed (for example, the index administrator or a named financial data vendor); the settlement source in the contract is the authoritative feed used to determine the outcome.
Planned earnings releases, major product announcements, regulatory decisions affecting key constituents, significant M&A activity, and material macroeconomic surprises during March are the primary drivers that can change the index direction over the month.
Total volume is an indicator of liquidity and participant interest; a smaller dollar volume can mean the market is more susceptible to large trades shifting the price, while higher volume generally supports tighter pricing and easier entry and exit. Use volume together with order book depth when assessing trade execution risk.