| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernie | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Gemini | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ChatGPT | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Claude | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Grok | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| LLaMA | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Qwen | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which AI will be considered the “best” at the end of 2026; it matters because outcomes capture collective expectations about which lab, product, or model will lead on capability, adoption, or influence by that date.
The AI landscape is fast-moving, with large research labs, cloud providers, and startups competing on model capabilities, product integration, and commercial deployment. Over the last few years benchmarks, high-profile product launches, and corporate partnerships have frequently reshaped which organizations are viewed as leaders.
Market prices aggregate traders’ beliefs about which outcome will be judged the winner by the market’s settlement rules; prices evolve as new technical results, product rollouts, and regulatory actions appear.
Resolution will follow the market’s published settlement criteria on the contract page; that typically requires objective evidence or authoritative sources specified in the contract description, so consult the market rules for the precise deciding standards.
“End of 2026” generally refers to the status as of the calendar end of 2026 (the contract’s defined cutoff time), but because this market shows the close as TBD you should check the market’s official description for the exact timestamp used for settlement.
Outcomes often name specific companies, labs, or model families, and may include an ‘other’ or ‘no clear best’ option; review the specific outcome labels on the event page to see which entities are being compared here.
Sustained, independently verifiable indicators—such as benchmark leadership on standardized tests, large-scale customer deployment metrics, or durable commercial traction—are typically more persuasive than one-off demos or speculative press reports.
Total traded volume shows how much capital has changed hands and signals trader interest and liquidity for this specific contract, but it does not guarantee an accurate outcome; higher volume usually means more information is incorporated into prices and easier entry and exit for traders.