| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cut >25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Maintains rate | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike >25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the Bank of Canada will decide at its September 2026 policy meeting — a key event for borrowing costs, financial markets, and the Canadian economy. Market prices aggregate trader expectations about the Bank's chosen interest-rate outcome.
The Bank of Canada sets monetary policy to achieve its inflation target while supporting economic growth and financial stability; decisions in 2026 will reflect the post‑pandemic economic recovery, recent inflation dynamics, and labour market conditions. Since the global monetary environment remains influenced by major central banks, commodity price swings, and domestic fiscal settings, each policy meeting is evaluated against a backdrop of evolving data and forward guidance.
Prediction-market outcomes represent discrete scenarios for the Bank’s announced policy action (e.g., a specified rate move or a hold). Treat market prices as a summary of trader expectations, which update continuously as new information arrives.
The Bank will announce its policy decision, typically the target for the overnight rate or equivalent policy rate, accompanied by a statement explaining the rationale and, in many cases, a press conference or published commentary from the Governor.
The decision is announced on the date listed in the Bank of Canada’s official schedule; the Bank publishes the policy statement and related materials on its website at the time of the announcement and often follows up with a press conference and Monetary Policy Report.
Each outcome represents a discrete policy scenario defined by the market contract—typically covering a range of rate changes and a hold option; consult the contract description on the market page for the exact thresholds that map to each labelled outcome.
Key releases include monthly CPI and core inflation statistics, quarterly GDP data, employment reports, wage and labour‑force metrics, and updates to the Bank’s own forecasts; major international developments and commodity price moves can also shift expectations.
The Governing Council of the Bank of Canada (Governor and Deputy Governors) votes on policy; the Bank publishes a decision statement and often a press conference transcript or summary that explains the Council’s assessment and rationale.