| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cut >25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Maintains rate | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike >25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which policy decision the Bank of Canada will announce at its July 2026 monetary policy meeting. The BoC decision affects interest rates, borrowing costs, and expectations for inflation and economic growth in Canada, so it matters for households, businesses, and financial markets.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) sets the overnight policy rate at scheduled Governing Council meetings to achieve its inflation-control mandate. Historically the BoC has adjusted policy in response to inflationary pressures, labour-market conditions, and shifts in global financing conditions; recent years have seen periods of tightening and easing as the economy moves toward the BoC's objectives. Market participants watch a series of domestic data releases and central bank communications that inform expectations in the run-up to any decision.
Prediction market odds here represent the market's collective expectation about which of the mutually exclusive outcomes will occur at the July 2026 decision; they update as new information arrives but do not guarantee the eventual outcome. Treat market prices as a real-time signal that aggregates diverse information and opinions rather than a definitive forecast.
The BoC announces policy at the end of its scheduled Governing Council meeting; the exact date and time are set on the BoC's official calendar. Check the Bank of Canada website and this market's page for the official announcement date and any market close times.
The five mutually exclusive outcomes correspond to the distinct policy decision categories defined on this market (for example specific rate moves or categorical labels). See the market's outcome list on the platform to view their exact wording and settlement conditions.
Key releases include the monthly CPI and core inflation reports, the labour-force survey, GDP or monthly GDP proxies, and major retail or consumption figures; surprises in these releases tend to move expectations most strongly in the days before the decision.
The Governing Council of the Bank of Canada makes the official interest-rate decision, led by the Governor and including Senior Deputy and other Council members; the market settles based on the BoC's public announcement on the scheduled decision day.
Treat speeches, new data, and major global developments as inputs that can shift market-implied expectations quickly; monitor the timing and credibility of sources, read BoC communications for context, and remember that markets can overreact to single releases before the full data picture is clear.