| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cut >25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Maintains rate | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike >25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the Bank of Canada's policy decision will be at its December 2026 meeting; outcomes typically reflect different possible interest-rate and policy stances. The decision matters because it influences borrowing costs, financial markets, and the Canadian economy.
The Bank of Canada’s Governing Council meets regularly to set monetary policy, most directly the target for the overnight rate, and publishes a policy statement and often a press conference and minutes after the decision. Since the global and domestic economic outlook can shift between meetings, December decisions are assessed in the context of the year-to-date path of inflation, growth, and labour-market developments. Market participants also pay attention to the Bank’s forward guidance and any changes to its balance-sheet or liquidity programs.
Prediction market prices aggregate traders’ views about which decision will occur and update as new data or communications arrive. Treat market prices as a timely market-implied signal—not a guarantee—of consensus expectations at a given moment.
Decisions typically include raising, lowering, or keeping the policy interest rate unchanged and may include changes to forward guidance, asset-purchase programs, or other balance-sheet measures; this market's outcomes will map to the decision options specified by the platform.
The Bank publishes its meeting schedule and announces decisions on the official date; the market will settle based on the Bank’s official public announcement and the platform’s published settlement rules once the decision is released.
Key releases include monthly CPI and core inflation measures, employment reports, quarterly GDP and business surveys, retail sales, and any unexpected macro shocks that alter the inflation or growth outlook.
The Governing Council of the Bank of Canada decides monetary policy; the outcome is communicated through an official policy statement, the central bank’s website, and typically a post-decision press conference and published minutes that explain the rationale.
If the official announcement leaves room for interpretation, the platform’s published resolution rules govern settlement; they typically rely on the explicit language of the Bank’s statement and any clarifying official communications on the decision date.