| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase McDowell | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $511 | Trade → |
| French Hill | 98% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $445 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will become the Republican nominee for Arkansas' 2nd Congressional District (AR-02). The outcome matters because the primary winner will determine the Republican standard-bearer for the general election and signals intra-party preference in the district.
Arkansas' congressional nominations are decided through state primaries and, if no candidate wins a majority, a subsequent runoff between the top two finishers. Local political networks, recent endorsement patterns, fundraising, and turnout dynamics have historically been decisive in AR-02 contests.
Prices in this market represent the collective expectations of traders and update as new information arrives; treat them as a real-time indicator rather than a fixed forecast. Rapid price moves can reflect new polling, endorsements, or other campaign events.
It will resolve to the candidate who is officially recognized as the Republican nominee for Arkansas' 2nd Congressional District — typically the primary winner as certified by the relevant state or party authority. Check the market's resolution rules for the authoritative source of certification.
Resolution timing depends on the state primary calendar and any required runoff or certification processes; the market will resolve after the official nominee is determined and certified. Monitor Arkansas' primary schedule and the market page for updates on closing.
If no candidate wins a majority, a runoff between the top two will typically determine the nominee and the market will wait for that result and certification; recounts or official challenges can delay resolution. If a nominee withdraws before certification, resolution follows the official party/state guidance — consult the market's settlement rules for specifics.
Major endorsements, sizable fundraising reports, credible local polling, debate performances, candidate withdrawals, or breaking news (e.g., scandals or legal issues) are the events most likely to prompt sharp market moves.
Yes. Relatively low traded volume means less liquidity, so prices can swing sharply on small bets and may reflect the views of a limited number of participants; interpret changes cautiously and consider corroborating evidence from polls, endorsements, and official results.