| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Begich III | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Gavin Solomon | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Matt Schultz | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| John Williams | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Bill Hill | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which named person will be the winner of Alaska's at-large U.S. House seat. It matters because Alaska holds a single, statewide House seat and the result affects party control and representation in Congress.
Alaska elects one member to the U.S. House for its at-large district. In recent cycles the state has used an open top-four primary followed by a ranked-choice voting general election, and both incumbency and strong independent/third-party candidacies have influenced outcomes. Alaska's large geography, rural/urban divides, and issue mix (energy, fisheries, federal land policy) shape voter preferences.
Market prices represent traders' aggregated expectations about which named person will be certified as the official winner; they change as new information arrives and are not guarantees. Resolution follows the official election result and the market's published rules (for example, after ranked‑choice tabulation and state certification).
The listed close time is TBD on the market page; the market resolves to the person who is officially certified as the winner by the appropriate Alaska election authority after all tabulation and legal processes are complete, per the market's resolution rules.
If the election uses ranked‑choice tabulation, the market will resolve to the candidate who emerges as the final winner after all rounds of ranked‑choice counting and any required certification; redistribution of lower‑ranked ballots can change the leading candidate during tabulation.
Refer to the market description on the platform for the specific contest; some markets target a particular election (general or special) or certification date, while others may cover the next person to hold the seat regardless of how the vacancy occurs—resolution depends on that definition.
The market will follow its published dispute and resolution policy: typically it waits for the final official determination or court decision that certifies the winner before resolving, which can delay final settlement.
The market's outcome list and the precise name strings are available on the market page; check that page for which individuals are included, how write‑ins or 'other' are handled, and any instructions about candidate withdrawal or replacement.