| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ At least 1500 score | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| At least 1550 score | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 1600 score | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 1650 score | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 1700 score | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 1750 score | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how much AI capabilities will grow during the current year, with traders choosing among six mutually exclusive outcomes. Its results are useful to observers in research, investment, and policy because they summarize collective expectations about near‑term technical progress.
AI capability growth is typically measured via benchmark performance, real‑world task competence, and public demonstrations from major labs and open‑source projects. Recent years have seen rapid, sometimes discontinuous improvements driven by larger models, algorithmic advances, and greater compute; this market aggregates beliefs about whether comparable gains will occur within the year. The market’s outcomes capture different magnitudes or timings of growth and will resolve according to the event definition once the organizer sets closing and resolution criteria.
Market prices reflect the crowd’s aggregated view about which outcome will happen and will move as new information (benchmark releases, major model launches, hardware changes, policy moves) arrives. Treat prices as a continuously updating signal, not a fixed forecast, and review the event’s resolution rules before trading.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific, mutually exclusive definition of 'AI capability growth this year' as provided by the event creator; consult the event description on the market page for the exact thresholds, measurement method, and the resolution date or condition.
Closes: TBD means the organizer has not fixed the market’s closing time; trading continues until the platform or event creator sets a close or resolution condition, so monitor platform announcements and the event page for updates before assuming a trading deadline.
Treat such releases as fresh evidence: evaluate whether the benchmark aligns with the event’s measurement, the robustness and reproducibility of the result, and whether it signals a sustained trend versus an isolated achievement before updating positions.
Volume shows how much capital has changed hands and gives a sense of liquidity and engagement, but it does not guarantee accuracy; combine volume information with the number of distinct traders, open interest, and the quality of incoming news when judging market informativeness.
Major research labs, cloud and chip providers, and large open‑source projects—along with policy changes and large funding announcements—tend to move expectations; specific launches, chip availability, or announcements from leading labs and hardware firms are common catalysts for price shifts.