| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ At least 1500 score | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| At least 1525 score | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 1550 score | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 1575 score | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 1600 score | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 1625 score | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 1650 score | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 1675 score | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 1700 score | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether defined AI capability milestones will be achieved before July; it matters because collective expectations about rapid capability growth affect investment, safety planning, and policy decisions.
AI capabilities have advanced quickly in recent years through model scaling, new architectures, and larger compute budgets; milestone-focused markets like this aggregate diverse signals about when the next measurable step will occur. The contract on KALSHI lists nine discrete outcomes and currently shows active trading but a closing date is listed as TBD, so traders should check the official contract page for the latest procedural details.
Market prices are a live, aggregate expression of traders' beliefs about whether the specified milestones will occur before the stated cutoff; those prices update as new technical results, releases, or policy developments arrive and should be read as evolving consensus rather than fixed forecasts.
The precise cutoff (date and time, including timezone) and any qualifying language are defined in the market's contract text on KALSHI; consult that contract for the authoritative definition used for resolution.
Each outcome corresponds to a distinct, pre-specified milestone or range of milestones described in the contract (for example, particular benchmark thresholds, specific capability demonstrations, or documented model releases); the contract lists those mappings and the exact evidence required for each outcome to be considered achieved.
Resolution follows the rules and adjudication procedures laid out by KALSHI in the contract; typically that means objective, documented evidence (papers, benchmark leaderboards, or public announcements) accepted by the platform or a named adjudicator—check the contract for any designated authoritative sources or dispute procedures.
Yes, listed closing times can be updated by the exchange before trading begins or per the platform's rules; any update to the close date/time or resolution criteria will be posted in the contract details and can change how much time remains to react to incoming information, so monitor official updates closely.
Public announcements, benchmark reports, or preprints from major AI labs and high-profile open-source teams—especially those claiming clear, measurable capability gains—are the most influential signals, as are disclosures about large compute acquisitions, regulatory actions, or coordinated pauses that materially change development trajectories.