| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Cornyn | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ken Paxton | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Wesley Hunt | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market is about which Republican candidate finishes third in the first round of the Texas U.S. Senate primary. It matters because third place is the final position that keeps a campaign out of a head-to-head runoff between the top two.
Texas primaries use a first-round vote where any candidate receiving a majority wins outright; if no one gets a majority, the top two vote-getters advance to a runoff. In crowded primaries for high-profile seats, the race for second and third can be tight and determined by turnout patterns, localized strength, and late shifts in support.
Market prices reflect the collective judgment of participants given current information and change as new data arrives; treat them as a dynamic signal rather than a fixed prediction and combine them with polling, local returns, and campaign developments when forming views.
This refers to the candidate with the third-highest official vote total in the first-round (primary) tabulation as certified by the relevant Texas election authorities; the market resolves to whichever named outcome matches that official result.
The market resolves based on the official first-round results used by Texas election officials and as specified in the market's resolution terms; resolution typically occurs after the state or county canvass/certification process, per the market's published rules.
All ballots that are included in the official certified first-round totals used by Texas authorities are part of the determination; if provisional or late-counted ballots are added before certification, they are incorporated in that official total.
In the event of an official tie, the market follows its published tie-breaking and resolution procedures; consult the market's contract rules for how ties are handled (for example, specific tie-break rules or other resolution methods).
Yes — if a withdrawn candidate remains on the ballot and receives votes that place them third in the official first-round totals, the market will resolve to that outcome unless the market's rules explicitly exclude withdrawn or disqualified candidates.