| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hathaway, any margin | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Mejia, 0-8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Mejia, 8-12% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Mejia, 12-16% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Mejia, 16-20% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Mejia, 20-24% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Mejia, 24% and above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how large the winner's margin will be in the 2026 special election for New Jersey's 11th Congressional District. It matters because the margin can indicate strength of local party support, signal trends for the midterm cycle, and affect perceptions of mandate and momentum.
The contest is a special election to fill a vacancy in NJ-11; special elections often have different dynamics than regular general elections because of compressed timelines, variable turnout, and concentrated attention from state and national parties. NJ-11 is a suburban district where local issues, candidate quality, and turnout patterns have been important drivers in recent cycles.
Each market outcome corresponds to a range of victory margins; the market resolves to the outcome that contains the certified final margin reported by New Jersey election authorities. Market prices aggregate public information and expectations, but they are not guarantees of the final certified result.
It means the difference in vote share between the first- and second-place candidates, expressed in percentage points; the market resolves to the range that contains the official, certified final margin.
The seven discrete outcomes each represent a predefined margin range. After official certification of the special election results by New Jersey election authorities, the market resolves to the single outcome whose range contains that certified margin.
Resolution follows the official certification of the special election results by New Jersey's election officials; because the event's close date is listed as TBD, watch the state's reporting schedule, provisional/absentee counting updates, and any certification notices.
All legally counted ballots included in the state's final certification are used to determine the margin; late-arriving absentee/provisional ballots, recounts, or court-ordered corrections can change the certified margin and therefore which outcome wins, and may delay market resolution.
Track candidate announcements and withdrawals, polling and early voting trends in the district, fundraising and ad buys, endorsements from local officials, turnout reports from county clerks, and national energy or events that alter voter enthusiasm for either party.