| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 90 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 90 to 94.99 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 95 to 99.99 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 100 to 104.99 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 105 to 109.99 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 110 to 114.99 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 115 to 119.99 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 120 to 124.99 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 125 million and above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks how much voter participation there will be in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections; turnout is a key indicator of electoral dynamics and which parties gain or lose seats.
Midterm turnout historically differs from presidential years and is shaped by factors like the incumbent president's approval, major national issues, mobilization efforts, and localized contests. The 2026 environment will reflect the post-2024 political landscape, candidate quality in competitive districts, and any intervening national events that change voter enthusiasm.
Market odds reflect collective expectations about which turnout range or outcome will occur; they update as new information arrives but do not guarantee outcomes. Always consult the market's posted resolution rules to understand exactly how turnout will be measured and settled.
The market resolves according to the platform's posted event terms; turnout is typically measured using certified vote totals for U.S. House contests aggregated to the national metric specified in the rules. Check the market’s resolution language to see whether it uses raw vote totals, a turnout percentage of the voting-eligible population, or another published measure.
Each of the nine outcomes corresponds to a mutually exclusive turnout category or threshold listed in the market contract. Only one outcome will settle as true based on the specified post-election data source and timing; review the outcome labels and resolution criteria on the event page to map outcomes to actual turnout ranges.
The market's close time is listed as TBD on the event page; resolution typically occurs after official election results are certified by state authorities and the platform’s designated aggregator has published final totals. Certification timelines vary by state and can take days to weeks, so settlement may be delayed until those processes conclude.
Relevant patterns include the consistent gap between midterm and presidential turnout, the effect of wave elections that sharply raise turnout in some years, regional variation across states, and how highly contested national narratives or strong local races can boost participation above baseline expectations.
Key risks include slow-count states with many absentee or provisional ballots, litigation or recounts in close races, errors or revisions in aggregated data, and major events that shift counting or certification schedules; such developments can move prices until the market officially resolves per its rules.