| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Algeria | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Argentina | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Austria | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market lets traders take positions on which national team will finish first in World Cup Group J. The group winner matters because it determines who advances to the knockout stage and can affect the tournament path for the rest of the competition.
Group-stage outcomes combine pre-tournament form, draw composition, and three-match dynamics; past World Cups show both favorites and underdogs can top groups. This specific market is hosted on KALSHI and currently shows active participation (volume traded), with four outcomes corresponding to the four teams drawn into Group J.
Market prices reflect the aggregate expectations of traders and incorporate new information as it arrives (injuries, lineups, match results). Treat market prices as a real‑time indicator of sentiment rather than a guarantee of any outcome.
Each outcome corresponds to one of the four teams drawn into World Cup Group J and represents that team finishing top of the group.
Resolution timing depends on KALSHI’s contract rules; typically a group-winner market resolves after the group-stage matches are completed and official standings are confirmed by the tournament organizer—check the platform’s settlement notice for the exact timestamp.
If teams finish level on points, standard tie-breakers are applied (goal difference, goals scored, head-to-head results, head-to-head goal difference/goals scored, fair-play points, and, if necessary, drawing of lots) before the winner is finalized.
Watch starting lineups and substitutions, injuries and suspensions announced on matchdays, real-time scorelines and goal margins in other group matches, and any official changes to match scheduling or venue conditions.
Match order affects strategy: teams playing earlier may set target results that change opponents’ risk calculus later, while teams with a final match against a weaker opponent may have a clearer chance to secure the top spot—scheduling can therefore materially alter incentives and outcomes.