| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 15% | 14¢ | 15¢ | — | $2.7M | Trade → |
| Ludvig Aberg | 12% | 11¢ | 12¢ | — | $1.2M | Trade → |
| Rory McIlroy | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | — | $1.1M | Trade → |
| Collin Morikawa | 12% | 12¢ | 13¢ | — | $931K | Trade → |
| Jordan Spieth | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $752K | Trade → |
| Cameron Young | 6% | 6¢ | 7¢ | — | $693K | Trade → |
| Chris Gotterup | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $675K | Trade → |
| Daniel Berger | 14% | 13¢ | 14¢ | — | $597K | Trade → |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $569K | Trade → |
| Nicolas Echavarria | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $533K | Trade → |
| Jhonattan Vegas | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $466K | Trade → |
| Si Woo Kim | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $460K | Trade → |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $449K | Trade → |
| Keith Mitchell | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $435K | Trade → |
| Viktor Hovland | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $422K | Trade → |
| Shane Lowry | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $391K | Trade → |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $390K | Trade → |
| Jake Knapp | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $334K | Resolved |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $329K | Trade → |
| Sepp Straka | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $324K | Trade → |
| Xander Schauffele | 5% | 5¢ | 6¢ | — | $313K | Trade → |
| Kurt Kitayama | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $284K | Trade → |
| Rickie Fowler | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $267K | Trade → |
| Min Woo Lee | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $262K | Trade → |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $261K | Trade → |
| Corey Conners | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $252K | Trade → |
| Adam Scott | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $227K | Trade → |
| Akshay Bhatia | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $215K | Trade → |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $196K | Trade → |
| Justin Thomas | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $177K | Trade → |
| Ryan Fox | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $172K | Trade → |
| Justin Rose | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $162K | Trade → |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $158K | Trade → |
| Nick Taylor | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $151K | Trade → |
| Sahith Theegala | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $148K | Trade → |
| Jason Day | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $145K | Trade → |
| Max Greyserman | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $131K | Trade → |
| Maverick McNealy | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $117K | Trade → |
| Harris English | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $113K | Trade → |
| Russell Henley | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $105K | Trade → |
| Aldrich Potgieter | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $93K | Trade → |
| Keegan Bradley | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $90K | Trade → |
| Michael Kim | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $81K | Trade → |
| Pierceson Coody | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $72K | Trade → |
| Patrick Cantlay | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $71K | Trade → |
| Ben Griffin | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $63K | Trade → |
| Robert MacIntyre | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $55K | Trade → |
| Joel Dahmen | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $49K | Trade → |
| Sam Burns | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $47K | Trade → |
| Austin Smotherman | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $46K | Trade → |
| Alex Noren | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $44K | Trade → |
| Ryan Gerard | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $40K | Trade → |
| Sungjae Im | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $37K | Trade → |
| J.J. Spaun | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $28K | Trade → |
| Chris Kirk | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $23K | Trade → |
| Taylor Moore | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $20K | Trade → |
| Billy Horschel | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $19K | Trade → |
| Denny McCarthy | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $16K | Trade → |
| Taylor Pendrith | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| Bud Cauley | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| Sam Stevens | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| Andrew Novak | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| Brian Harman | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| Tom Hoge | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| Andrew Putnam | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| Matthew McCarty | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| Lucas Glover | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Hao-Tong Li | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Brian Campbell | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| J.T. Poston | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Patrick Rodgers | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Harry Hall | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Daniel Bennett | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $603 | Trade → |
This market trades claims on which player will win the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard; it aggregates participant expectations about the tournament outcome and can be used to express views or discover market consensus.
The Arnold Palmer Invitational is a long‑running PGA Tour event played at Bay Hill, known for a challenging layout that rewards ball‑striking and course management. The market lists 72 potential winners to reflect the players most likely to compete and matters because results are driven by form, matchup with the course, and day‑to‑day conditions.
Market prices are a continuously updating snapshot of traders’ collective beliefs about who will win; they move as new information arrives but are not guarantees of any outcome.
The market close is listed as TBD; typically markets for a tournament winner close shortly before play begins or at the platform’s announced cutoff, so monitor the Kalshi market page and any official notices for the exact closing time.
Settlement follows the official tournament result: the player declared champion by the PGA Tour (including the winner of any playoff) will be the resolved outcome.
A withdrawn player cannot win the tournament; prices will typically adjust in trading to reflect their withdrawal. Check Kalshi’s market notices for any specific adjustments or removal of outcomes prior to settlement.
If a playoff is used to decide first place, the playoff winner is the official champion for settlement; in the rare case of co‑champions declared by tournament officials (for example due to unplayable conditions), the market will settle according to the PGA Tour’s official designation.
Key items to watch are tee times and pairings, practice‑round and press reports, injury and withdrawal announcements, weather forecasts for tournament days, and recent form on comparable courses.