| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senegal | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| France | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Norway | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Bolivia | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Iraq | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Suriname | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
This prediction market tracks which outcomes will occur in the World Cup Group I Qualifiers and aggregates trader expectations about those outcomes. It matters because it offers a continuously updating snapshot of market sentiment around qualification scenarios that fans, analysts, and traders follow closely.
World Cup qualifying is the multi-stage process national teams use to earn a spot at the FIFA World Cup; Group I refers to one of the groups within a confederation's qualifying stage. Historically, group qualifiers are shaped by margins as small as goal differential, injuries, scheduling, and administrative rulings, so markets for these events can move quickly as new information appears.
Market prices represent the crowd’s aggregated view of how likely each listed outcome is, and they update as new information arrives; they are not guarantees but signals that incorporate public information and trader expectations.
The market currently lists its close time as TBD; historically, markets for qualifiers tend to close shortly before the relevant matches kick off or before a decisive fixture is played. Monitor the market page for an official close time and plan to trade before news that could move prices (team sheets, injury reports, or match results) is released.
The market lists six discrete outcomes specified on the platform (for example, different teams qualifying, combinations, or specific match outcomes). Check the market interface to see the exact labels; each outcome is settled only if the precise condition listed in that outcome occurs.
Useful patterns include the impact of home-and-away scheduling on points totals, the outsized effect of late-match results on goal difference tiebreakers, and how mid-window injuries or club-versus-country conflicts have shifted outcomes in past cycles.
Immediate movers include official squad announcements, injury replacements, match results within the group, disciplinary decisions (suspensions or eligibility rulings), and changes to match venues or schedules that affect travel and recovery.
Head-to-head history provides context but is most informative when weighted toward recent meetings and similar conditions (same venue type, competitive match vs. friendly). Combine head-to-head data with current roster quality and recent form rather than relying on long-ago results alone.