| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IR Iran | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Egypt | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| New Zealand | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Belgium | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market lets traders take positions on the outcome(s) of the World Cup Group G qualifying scenario listed on KALSHI. It matters because market prices aggregate real-time information about team form, fixtures, and other developments that affect which team(s) advance from Group G.
The contract covers qualification outcomes for Group G and currently lists four distinct outcomes; total volume traded so far is $1,180 and the market close is TBD. World Cup qualifying is decided across a series of matchdays where group standings, head-to-head results and goal difference determine who advances or goes to playoffs; past cycles show that late matchdays and direct confrontations often decide final places.
Prediction market prices reflect the collective view of participants trading on observable developments (results, injuries, lineup news, schedule changes) rather than a single expert forecast. Use price movement to track how new information is being interpreted by the market, keeping in mind the market resolves according to the contract labels and official competition results.
Each of the four labeled outcomes corresponds to a specific contract entry on the market (for example, a particular team qualifying, a playoff spot, or other scenario). The exact labels and settlement conditions are shown on the market page; settlement will follow the official competition results as specified in the contract terms.
The market close is listed as TBD; the market creator or KALSHI will set the final close time, which commonly occurs before kickoff of the decisive fixture(s) or once the relevant matches are complete. Check the market page for the official close date and any updates.
Matches between direct contenders in Group G and the final matchday with dependent permutations are the most market-moving fixtures, as their outcomes change standings and liveness of qualification scenarios; rescheduled or double-header matchdays can also prompt large adjustments.
Such developments alter traders’ expectations about on-field performance and therefore drive price movement, but they do not affect how the market resolves: settlement is based on official match results and the contract’s labels. Monitor official team announcements close to matchdays for the biggest short-term impacts.
Historical records provide useful context—showing matchup tendencies and psychological edges—but traders typically weight recent form, current squad strength, and the immediate fixture schedule more heavily when updating positions for this qualifying window.