| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tunisia | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Netherlands | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ukraine | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Poland | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Albania | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Sweden | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market resolves on which national team finishes first in World Cup Group F. It matters because group winners secure the more favorable path in the knockout stage and markets aggregate real‑time expectations about that outcome.
Group outcomes are determined across a round‑robin mini‑league where each team plays the others; standings depend on match results, goal differential and tournament tie‑breakers. Historical patterns show that group winners are typically teams with consistent starters, greater squad depth, favourable scheduling, and fewer injuries. Market interest reflects both sporting analysis and event‑specific news (lineups, injuries, weather, officiating).
Market prices express the crowd’s collective assessment of each listed outcome at the moment of trading; they move as news and bets arrive. Use prices as a dynamic indicator rather than a fixed prediction—monitor updates around kickoff, lineup announcements, and injury reports.
The market closing time is listed as TBD; on Kalshi, markets typically close before relevant matches begin or when the market creator sets a resolution time—check the market page for the definitive closing timestamp.
The market creator defined seven distinct resolution options; these can include each team in the group and additional packaged or conditional outcomes. Consult the market outcome list on the platform to see exactly which choices are offered.
Tournament regulations specify the tie‑breaking procedure (commonly goal difference, goals scored, and head‑to‑head criteria, followed by fair‑play or drawing lots). For precise ordering and edge cases, refer to the official competition rules rather than market commentary.
Prices typically react in near real‑time as traders incorporate new information; significant pre‑match lineup news can move prices before kickoff, while in‑match events (injuries, red cards, penalties) may shift live prices during games if the market supports intraday trading.
Key items are confirmed starting lineups, injury reports and recovery timelines, suspension updates, weather or pitch conditions for match venues, official fixture times or schedule changes, and credible reports on tactical changes from coaching staff.