| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Israel will be officially prevented from participating in the Eurovision Song Contest. The outcome matters because it reflects potential political, legal, and organizational interventions into a high-profile cultural event.
Eurovision participation is governed by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) and depends on the eligibility and standing of national broadcasters as well as EBU decisions about contest rules and venue logistics. The contest has in the past excluded or suspended delegations when broadcasters lost EBU membership or when political and security considerations made participation infeasible.
Market prices here are a real-time aggregation of traders' expectations about whether an official ban will be declared; they are not official EBU decisions. Prices change as new information appears, such as EBU statements, legal rulings, or major operational developments.
The market will resolve when the underlying condition — an official ban by the relevant adjudicating body or an equivalent definitive resolution — is publicly confirmed; until the platform lists a closing time, tradeable positions can change as events unfold.
For this market, a 'ban' means an official prohibition by the organization that controls Eurovision participation (typically the EBU or an authorized panel) that prevents Israel from entering the contest; voluntary withdrawal by the delegation is not the same as an imposed ban unless the market’s rules state otherwise.
The EBU and its governing bodies are the primary authorities; decisions can also involve the contest host, national broadcasters' membership status, and occasionally legal rulings or sanctions that affect eligibility.
Yes — in past editions, some broadcasters or delegations have been barred or suspended due to loss of EBU membership, rule breaches, or geopolitical developments; those precedents illustrate the types of institutional steps that can lead to exclusion.
Official EBU statements about membership or disciplinary action, formal communications from the Israeli broadcaster about participation, host-country security assessments, or binding legal/sanctions decisions would be the principal catalysts that change market expectations.