| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether any 2026 FIFA World Cup match that was scheduled to be played in the United States will be moved to a venue outside the U.S. before June 11, 2026. The question matters because an overseas relocation would have major consequences for logistics, local organizers, and fans who planned travel to U.S. host cities.
The 2026 World Cup is a tri‑host tournament with matches allocated across the United States, Canada, and Mexico; many matches were announced for U.S. stadiums but final operational readiness and political or public‑health conditions will evolve as the event approaches. Relocations of high‑profile international matches are uncommon but can occur when stadiums fail inspections, when security or travel restrictions arise, or when governing bodies and hosts agree that a change is necessary.
Market prices represent the aggregated trading view about whether at least one U.S.‑scheduled match will be moved abroad before the stated date; they update as inspections, government actions, or new incidents change the perceived likelihood. Use those prices as a real‑time signal that complements tracking concrete developments such as FIFA venue certifications and local government announcements.
A relocation 'abroad' means a game that was officially scheduled to be played in a U.S. venue is instead held at a venue outside the United States (for example in Canada, Mexico, or another country) prior to June 11, 2026; moving the match to a different U.S. stadium does not count.
FIFA has final authority over match scheduling and venue approvals, but decisions are typically made in coordination with the Local Organizing Committee, national and local governments, stadium owners, and security agencies; any of these parties can precipitate a relocation through inspections, regulatory actions, or failure to meet requirements.
Key milestones include FIFA venue inspections and certifications, construction completion deadlines, security risk assessments, finalized travel and visa policies, and any major incidents or government emergency declarations; announcements tied to these milestones are the most likely triggers for relocation decisions.
No — a straight cancellation that is not followed by rescheduling the match to a venue outside the U.S. would not meet the market’s definition of a relocation abroad; the market is focused on whether any game is actually moved to a non‑U.S. venue before the cutoff date.
Contingency planning, backup stadium declarations, and preparatory talks about alternatives are common and do not by themselves resolve the market; only an official decision or an operational change that causes a scheduled U.S. game to be played abroad before June 11, 2026 would meet the market outcome.