| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Lamine Yamal | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Harry Kane | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Erling Haaland | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Declan Rice | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Vitinha | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Michael Olise | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Raphinha | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Lionel Messi | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Vinicius Junior | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Bukayo Saka | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Luis Diaz | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Pedri | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Rayan Cherki | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jude Bellingham | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ousmane Dembele | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Desire Doue | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Mohamed Salah | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cole Palmer | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Scott McTominay | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Nuno Mendes | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Bruno Fernandes | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Bradley Barcola | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Lautaro Martinez | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tijjani Reijnders | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Phil Foden | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Gianluigi Donnarumma | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Rodri | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Marcus Rashford | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which named player will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or, the annual award given to the world's top male footballer; it matters because it aggregates market expectations about who will dominate club and international football in 2026.
The Ballon d'Or, awarded by France Football since 1956, is decided by a panel of international football journalists and reflects a player's performances over the relevant period. The 2026 edition will be shaped by players' club seasons and by major international play in 2026, most notably the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Market prices on this event reflect collective trader expectations and change as on-field results, injuries, transfers, and narratives evolve; use them as real-time indicators of market sentiment rather than fixed forecasts.
Close time is listed as TBD on the event page; Kalshi sets the market close and may update it — check the event page for the final closing time and note that markets sometimes close before the official announcement.
Settlement follows the official announcement: the named outcome that matches France Football’s declared winner will settle as the winning outcome; consult Kalshi’s event rules for tie handling or special cases.
Very significantly — World Cup form typically carries outsized weight in Ballon d'Or voting when it falls inside the award period, so standout performances at the 2026 World Cup can materially shift market expectations.
Voters generally evaluate a player’s performances across roughly the preceding 12 months (club seasons and international tournaments), though France Football publishes the exact eligibility window for each year.
Markets either include a 'none of the above' option or apply a predefined settlement policy; if the winner isn’t listed, the event will be settled according to Kalshi’s published terms for this market — check the event rules for that procedure.